Vernon Davis and the Pointless Holdout

Let me start this off by saying that I am a big Vernon Davis fan. He is extremely talented, a physical freak of nature, one of the top tight ends in the league, and was a main part of my championship winning fantasy team last season.

However, I disagree with his decision to holdout for a bigger contract that he attempted to justify in his article in Sports Illustrated’s MMQB (read it here). Davis signed a 5 year/$36.75 million contact in 2010. That deal included a $10 million signing bonus and $11.1 million guaranteed. He says that he is “playing at a higher level than [he] was then” and that “it’s all about getting paid what you deserve.”

That’s where he’s wrong.

Davis signed his current deal after coming of the best season of his career, 2009, in which he caught 78 passes for 965 yards and 13 touchdowns. The following year he had another stellar year catching 56 passes for 915 yards and 7 touchdowns. These are his two career high seasons in terms of yardage.

The next two years, 2011 and 2012, he saw a drop in production during the regular season, but was a huge part of the 49ers’ playoff runs both seasons. Last season, was a bit of a resurgence of the old Vernon Davis as he caught 52 passes for 850 yards and a career-high tying 13 touchdowns. These numbers are for only 15 games, as he missed his first game in 5 years after suffering a concussion.

When looking at the numbers, you can’t disagree that Vernon Davis is one of the best tight ends in the league. Most people would say the only better tight ends would be Jimmy Graham and maybe Gronk.

Graham’s numbers are miles ahead of Davis’ so it is tough to make a comparison there, and Gronk signed his contract after playing the single greatest season by a tight end ever so it’s hard to compare his worth to Davis’ as well.

Did Vernon Davis drastically improve his numbers last season compared to the rest of his career? No. Did he ever have a season like Gronk and Graham both had in 2011? No.

The only argument you could make against this is that Davis didn’t have Drew Brees or Tom Brady throwing him the football, but Colin Kaepernick’s newest contract shows the 49ers hold him to that level.

In fact, this holdout was most likely due to the monster contract Kaepernick signed, but that contract isn’t what it seems. There are numerous performance milestones Kaep must meet in order to earn the full $126 million and there is also a large opt out for the 49ers if he doesn’t meet them. Realistically, his deal is 2-years/$28 million, pay-as-you-go type of contract (Deadspin broke it down well).

If Vernon Davis believes he should make wide receiver money, like Jimmy Graham is trying to do, he is wrong. He is a true tight end and doesn’t put up the numbers Graham does.

I believe he could probably bargain with the team for another $1 million a year (depending on salary cap space) moving him closer to Gronk’s salary, but his deal would most likely be structured similar to Kaepernick’s with various performance levels he must meet in order to make big money.

Vernon Davis isn’t playing any better or worse than he did when he signed his other contract; he’s merely playing the same game. If he believes he should be paid “what [he] deserves” then it looks like he’s getting paid correctly now.

 

Clash of the Titans: Manning-Brady XV

The AFC Championship game today with be the 15th meeting of the classic matchup of Peyton Manning against Tom Brady. Every season, the game between them is a must watch, with 8 of their 14 games having been decided by a touchdown or less. Manning wins the stat line having thrown for more touchdowns and more yards than Brady, but Brady holds the advantage with a 10-4 record in their meetings.

You can make the case that Brady has consistently had a more complete team with better defenses and running backs to complement his passing game and that is why he has the advantage. Many of the wins he had against Peyton’s Colts, the blame for the loss was more on the poor defense Indianapolis had.

This season’s game on November 24th was possibly their best game yet. The Broncos took a first half lead of 24-0. The way they had started the season, it seemed impossible for the Broncos to lose a game they took such an early dominating lead, but Tom Brady and Julian Edleman didn’t think so. The Patriots came storming back with a 21-point 3rd quarter, and then scored another 10 to start the 4th to take a 31-24 lead before Broncos finally scored again to tie it at 31 in the games finals minutes.

The teams went back and forth in overtime, and for a few minutes it seemed like they might actually tie. However, the Patriots had some Foxboro magic on their side as a punt took a bad bounce directly into Denver’s Tony Carter who was unaware Wes Welker was letting the ball hit the ground. The recovered the fumble and Stephen Gostkowski kicked a 31-yard field goal to cap off one of the more amazing comebacks in recent memory and give the Broncos just their second loss on the year.

That game though was played in Foxboro, where Tom Brady and the Patriots have been nearly unstoppable for years. Today’s game will be on the road, at Mile High Stadium. The Broncos will have the home field advantage and they want to make up for the earlier loss.

Manning wants to prove to all the doubters that he once again can beat Tom in the playoffs and he wants another shot at the title. The defense has struggled with injuries, but so has New England’s offense with the loss of Gronk (again) and others. However, neither team has let those injuries slow them down and tonight’s game will come down the the wire. It will be another Brady-Manning chess game as they will go punch-for-punch most likely all night. It will be whoever makes fewer mistakes that will win the game. There were 11 fumbles and 1 interception in their previous matchup this season; something that will most definitely not happen again tonight.

My prediction is that Peyton will come away with a win tonight and get another shot at the Lombardi Trophy to cap off the most productive year by a quarterback ever. It will be a close one, once again being decided by a touchdown or less.

Broncos win, 41-37.